As I sit here in 2026, controller in hand and surrounded by empty energy drink cans, I can't help but marvel at how the gaming landscape has shifted. Remember when we all thought Bethesda had the open-world RPG market on lock? Those were simpler times, my friends. Now, we've got Obsidian Entertainment, the plucky underdog turned heavyweight contender, gearing up to drop Avowed – a game that looks so much like The Elder Scrolls it makes me wonder if Todd Howard is checking his patent lawyers. After The Outer Worlds gave Fallout a run for its money in the satirical sci-fi arena, the stage is set for an epic showdown: who will define the next generation of first-person RPGs? Grab your potions and power armor, because this is getting good.
Obsidian's Secret Weapon: Time Travel (Well, Almost)
Let's talk about Obsidian's not-so-secret advantage: timing. While Bethesda is busy juggling two massive projects, Obsidian has been quietly cooking Avowed in their fantasy kitchen. Here’s the hilarious part – based on everything we know (and by "we," I mean me and my obsessive Reddit scrolling), Avowed is practically guaranteed to launch before we even get a whiff of Fallout 5 or a potential Fallout: New Vegas 2. It's like showing up to a party with the best snacks before the host has even finished cleaning! 🎉
Why does this matter? Because in the gaming world, first impressions are everything. If Avowed drops first and absolutely slays, it could set the standard for what players expect from open-world RPGs in this console generation. Bethesda might find themselves playing catch-up, which is a role they're not exactly used to. The table below breaks down this hilarious timeline:
| Game | Developer | Likely Release Window (Based on 2026 Knowledge) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avowed | Obsidian Entertainment | Likely within 1-2 years | Actively in development, shown in trailers |
| Starfield | Bethesda | Hopefully soon? (It's been a while!) | Announced, some leaks, but radio silence lately |
| The Elder Scrolls VI | Bethesda | "When it's ready" (Translation: years away) | Officially announced in 2018, then... nothing |
| Fallout 5 | Bethesda | Probably after my future kids graduate college | Not officially confirmed, likely not even in pre-production |
| Fallout: New Vegas 2 | Rumored third-party | Maybe in development? Who knows! | Pure speculation and leak territory |
The Bethesda Balancing Act: A Tale of Two (or Three) Games
Bethesda's plate is so full it's practically bending. They're currently working on:
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Starfield: Their first new IP in forever. We've seen a leaked image of a space suit and some meters. Groundbreaking. 🤣
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The Elder Scrolls VI: Announced with a fancy logo in 2018 and then... poof! Vanished into the development void.
This two-game tango means a Bethesda-made Fallout 5 is about as likely as me successfully completing a no-death run in a Souls game – technically possible, but let's be real, it ain't happening anytime soon. The official word is that The Elder Scrolls VI won't release until after Starfield. So, if Starfield is maybe in the next few years (optimistically), TES VI is half a decade out. That leaves a Fallout-shaped hole in the 2020s.
Enter the Wild Card: Fallout: New Vegas 2?
This is where the rumor mill goes into overdrive. Whispers in dark corners of the internet suggest a Fallout: New Vegas 2 might be in the works, likely developed by a third-party studio just like the original. Now, I love New Vegas like I love my comfy gaming chair, but let's examine this logically.
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Would it be a direct sequel? A spiritual successor? Nobody knows!
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Has it been announced? Nope! 🚫
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Does that mean it's in an earlier development stage than Avowed? Almost certainly!
So, the race order is becoming clear:
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Avowed (Obsidian) – In the lead, rounding the final corner.
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Potential New Vegas 2 (Mystery Studio) – Still lacing up its boots in the locker room.
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Fallout 5 (Bethesda) – Hasn't even left the house yet.
Why This All Matters: The Throne is Up for Grabs
Here's the juicy bit. Avowed is fantasy. Fallout is sci-fi. They're different genres, right? Wrong! In the grand arena of first-person, open-world, choice-driven RPGs, they're competing for the same crown – the crown of my attention span and hard-earned cash.
By launching first, Avowed has a golden opportunity to:
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Define Expectations: If its magic system is butter-smooth, its world is immersive, and its choices actually matter, that becomes the new bar.
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Capture the Audience: Gamers hungry for a deep RPG fix will flock to it, potentially building a massive community before Bethesda's next entry.
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Learn and Adapt: Obsidian can see what works and what doesn't, giving them data that Bethesda won't have for their next project.
Imagine if Avowed becomes the new benchmark. When The Elder Scrolls VI finally emerges from its development cocoon, it won't just be compared to Skyrim; it'll be compared to Avowed. That's a fascinating shift in power!
My 2026 Gamer's Prediction
As I look at my shiny next-gen console (which probably has a number or "Pro" in its name by now), here's my take:
Obsidian is in the driver's seat. They have the experience (Pillars of Eternity lore for Avowed), the recent success (The Outer Worlds), and most importantly, the runway. They can release a polished, ambitious game without a 900-pound Bethesda gorilla dropping a title the same month.
Bethesda isn't out of the fight – the names Fallout and Elder Scrolls have legendary status. But they're playing a long, slow game. In the meantime, Obsidian could swoop in and become the new defining voice in Western RPGs for this generation.
So, while we wait for any official news (Todd, Phil, anyone? A crumb of information?), I'll be sharpening my imaginary sword for Avowed and keeping a hopeful eye on the Mojave for any signs of a sequel. The RPG throne is vacant, and the battle for it is going to be one of the most entertaining stories in gaming. May the best studio win! 🏆⚔️🛸